Fighting has intensified in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region between Tigrayan forces and the federal army, raising fears that the 2022 Pretoria Agreement could unravel.
The BBC reported panic buying, disruptions to internet and phone services, and fighting that spread beyond Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara. The two sides dispute responsibility for the latest escalation: the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) says it was responding to a federal offensive that included drone strikes, while the federal government says Tigrayan forces attacked first after seizing control of airports.
Unresolved issues from the 2022 peace deal
Several disputes that survived the Pretoria Agreement remain central to the crisis.
Western Tigray is still contested. Amhara forces took control of the area during the 2020-2022 war, and hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans fled. The TPLF wants the territory returned to Tigray and displaced residents allowed to return, while the federal government says its future should be decided by referendum.
Disarmament is another point of dispute. The federal government says the TPLF retained weapons after the peace agreement; the TPLF disputes the government’s handling of the settlement and says Addis Ababa has failed to implement key provisions.
Tigray’s governance has also become more contentious. The federal government appointed an interim administration under the peace deal, but political disputes later led the TPLF to restore its pre-war administration. The BBC reported that civil-service pay and public services have been disrupted.
The scale of the previous war remains contested, but an African Union mediator estimated that about 600,000 people died during the conflict, which also pushed parts of Tigray toward famine.
New alliances complicate the conflict
Earlier in September, the TPLF joined six other armed movements in a coalition called the Alliance for Survival. The grouping includes Amhara’s Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, movements with different grievances but a shared objective of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government from power.
The alliance is politically significant, although analysts cited by the BBC cautioned that its members have conflicting interests and may struggle to coordinate over time.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also deteriorated. Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups inside Ethiopia, an allegation Eritrea denies. Separately, Abiy has renewed demands for access to the Red Sea and has pushed for ownership of Eritrea’s southern port of Assab.
Calls for de-escalation
The African Union has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to direct talks, and has asked former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo to engage the parties.
The United Nations and the regional bloc Igad have also urged the sides to stop fighting and resume dialogue.
Because claims about battlefield events remain difficult to verify independently, Nuvellum attributes disputed accounts to the parties making them rather than presenting them as established fact.
